this just doesn't feel right
Resume IA
L'auteur du post se demande pourquoi tous les actifs financiers augmentent en valeur, y compris l'or, malgré la hausse des rendements des obligations, et se demande si cela est lié à une dévaluation du dollar. La communauté répond que cela pourrait être dû à une dévaluation du dollar.
Conseil cle
Il est possible que la dévaluation du dollar soit la cause de la hausse des prix de tous les actifs financiers.
I'm 23, so maybe don't listen to me. I've been working since I was 18, passively investing. For the record, I plan to completely stick to my diversified global ETF, I'm not here to time the market, it's totally against the ethos, I just want to write a post to publicly get off my chest something that has been bothering me lately. Maybe it has been bothering you too. I ran some numbers and need help understanding what the hell I'm even looking at. From January 2023 to January 2026, the S&P 500 went from 3,850 to 6,875, **a gain of 78.6%.** Gold went from $1,928 per ounce to $4,795, **a gain of 148.7%.** Meanwhile, the 10-year treasury yield rose from 3.5% to 4.24%, **meaning bond prices fell.** Gold outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 2x over three years. That's not supposed to happen in a healthy market. Gold typically rallies when stocks fall (flight to safety) or when real yields are negative (inflation hedge). But we just had stocks up 79% and treasury yields rising, which should hurt gold. Should I even mention that we still have insane nonsense crypto coins that do nothing and are still roaming around with eye watering market valuations too? How about real estate? Try adjusting all of these assets for M2 money supply or pricing them relative to gold (neither a direct indicator of inflation, I know, but fascinating to put it in perspective). Everything is rising. Really fast. Is productivity growing that fast? It doesn't feel like it. Having both equities and gold soaring together while bonds sell off is extremely rare. The S&P 500 is now trading at a Shiller CAPE of 40.32, the second highest reading in 100 or so years of data, only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com. That's just one data point, it's absolutely not indicative of anything because earnings will likely grow and catch up, but it does demonstrate my point which is: valuations are currently high. It feels like the only rule is to not hold cash. But here's what really bothers me. The Federal Rese
“If all asset prices are rising, and outside the market, prices of goods and services are rising, then the most likely explanation is dollar devaluation.”